FORT MCMURRAY, Alberta – Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is betting a new pipeline can help revive the country’s oil industry, boost its production and exports, and reduce its dependence on the United States.
Bringing back jobs will be much harder.
In the Alberta oil hub of Fort McMurray – nicknamed Fort McMoney in its heyday more than a decade ago – the tens of thousands of oil field jobs that powered the last boom are unlikely to return, even if Carney gets his pipeline.
Instead, much of the growth in oil sands output is likely to come from automation and efficiency gains rather than large-scale hiring, according to industry forecasts and nearly a dozen interviews with company officials, workers, politicians and academics.
The pipeline backed by Carney would transport 1 million barrels of crude oil a day to a port on the Pacific coast, expanding export capacity to Asia.
Asked by Reuters what the pipeline would mean for the region’s economy, Carney – a former central banker – cautioned against anticipating a return to the oil-boom days.
“I wouldn’t use the term ‘boom’,” Carney said during a visit to Fort McMurray this month. “I would use ‘sustained growth’.”